MAGNY

Monthly Luncheon & Discussion

Friday, January 11, 2019

U.S. Demographic Change, Ratings, and Interstate Tax Migration

Date: Friday, January 11, 2019

Time: 11:30 am - 2:00 pm

Location: Yale Club, 50 Vanderbilt Avenue, NYC

Summary: 

Major U.S. demographic changes driven by continued high levels of immigration, changes in state tax law, the aging of the Baby Boomers, and a slower rate of family formation by Millennials have been generating a great deal of interest in the national media and the public finance community. Commentators have presented a variety of views, ranging from demographic change having a muted effect on municipal finance to full-bore "doom and gloom" scenarios.  Our upcoming event represents MAGNY's attempt to sift through the noise and provide our members with informed commentary and opinion.

Please join us at our next luncheon on January 11 where four expert panelists will discuss the relationship between forecasted U.S. demographic change and state and local creditworthiness including the existence or non-existence of interstate tax migration and what is driving it. 

Speakers: 

Richard Prisinzano, Senior Economist and Tax Division Head with the Penn-Wharton Budget Model, will present the view that high tax rates on millionaires have not led to significant interstate migration by high income individuals, as summarized in a paper Dr. Prisinzano co-authored for the U.S. Treasury. (https://web.stanford.edu/~cy10/public/Jun16ASRFeature.pdf ). Biography

Nicole Kaeding, Director of Federal Projects at the Tax Foundation, will present a contrasting viewpoint, discussing the impact of high tax rates on corporate location decisions and interstate migration by residents in locations with high tax brackets. Biography

Dr. Olu Sonola, Group Credit Officer for U.S. Public Finance and Global Infrastructure for Fitch Ratings, will discuss recent U.S. aging patterns and their long-term economic and credit implications, particularly for state governments. Biography

Timothy Little, Associate Director in the U.S. States Team at S&P Global Ratings, will explore the use of demographics in the rating process and the rating implications of recent and projected U.S. demographic and population trends. Biography

Cost: $75 for members, $85 for non-members.

Registration is now closed.